NFL Week 5 open thread

Jazz: Last week’s NFL thread was much like a UFO sighting: I’m fairly sure something happened, but it’s best not to talk about it. I managed to get a whopping two games correct, bringing my record on the season to 12-17. At this rate my only hope of catching and passing Ed will be for Minnesota to legalize pot in the next five days. To top things off, this week I face off with Ed in our fantasy league. (Those who wish to follow along may do so here.) I’m still tied for first in the division… for now. I’ll need a major score here, though.

Ed: I did a little better than Jazz in NFL predictions at 4-3, bringing my season total to 18-9. I got blown out in my fantasy league last week, though, and so far have only one win. Besides, for the next couple of weeks it won’t do Jazz any good if Minnesota legalizes pot because I’m in Rome. Even a late-season case of the munchies probably won’t dent my lead, assuming I keep extending it here. By the way, I don’t hold out too much hope in the fantasy league matchup this week, although ESPN’s algorithm predicts a narrow win for my Sad Sacks. If I pray hard enough, I’m sure that, er … I’ll be comforted when the inevitable happens. (Pretty sure the Lord has more pressing issues than my fantasy league record.)

Jazz: The Vikings were already trounced on Thursday, so at least I don’t have to pick that one. The Steelers are playing the thus far winless Jaguars and as I see it, Jacksonville just has to win one eventually. I’m desperate for a win against Ed so I’ll have to take some upsets here and there. With that in mind I’ll cross my fingers and take the Jags with the home field advantage, 17-14. The Jets are playing the Chargers on the West Coast this week, and given the way Geno Smith has been turning the ball over like a waffle iron, my strategy largely involves a major earthquake hitting, splitting one of the roads open and preventing the San Diego bus from making it to the stadium. So I’ll pick the Jets 31-7. (San Diego will put the cheerleaders in who will be slightly less able to score on us.)

Ed: All right, down to business, long-distance style. Pittsburgh looked terrible at home against the mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I predict they’ll get back on track today against the winless Jags, 27-17. I want to like the Jets, who can be terrific at times, but they’re just not consistent. Geno Smith may become a top-flight QB, but he’s got plenty to learn. The Chargers are too tough at home for inconsistent teams to beat them, so I’ll go with San Diego, 24-17, although the Jets have an opening against the Chargers’ poor run defense.

Jazz: Here are my four other picks for today:

• Bears at Panthers (1:00, Fox) – I see a lot of the brain trust at ESPN are picking the Bears after they ran up nearly 500 yards in offense against Green Bay last week, but the Panthers have been making corrections to get their rushing defense back to what it looked like in the first two weeks. I’ll go with Carolina in a fun to watch, high scoring game. 38-27.
• Falcons at Giants (1:00, Fox) – Atlanta and New York are both 2-2 on the season, with the difference being that it puts Atlanta in 1st place in their division while the Giants languish in 3rd. But the Falcons have been terrible on the road and Eli Manning does better when he’s not under pressure. I’ll go with the home team in a Giants win 24-21.
• Chiefs at 49ers (4:25, CBS) – – At 2-2 the Chiefs have the same record as the struggling San Francisco team and they’ve now won back to back games. But Frank Gore seems to have really lit up the 49ers ground game, rather than their usual air attack. I’ll take San Francisco 31-23.
• Bengals at Patriots (8:30, NBC) – Before you ask, no.. I’m not picking the Monday night game because it should be a joke. Instead, I’ll take the Sunday night game. The Bengals are undefeated this season and should be fresh coming off their bye week. But as bad as New England looked last week, they tend to be nearly unstoppable at home, while Cincinnati tends to struggle on the road in prime time. It’s another upset according to ESPN, but I’ll take New England 21-14.

Ed:

• Bears at Panthers (1:00, Fox) – Both of Chicago’s wins have come on the road, interestingly, and the Panthers have split their two home games. Neither team has a high-functioning unit on the field, but the Panthers’ run defense only ranks 27th, so expect to see a lot from Matt Forte today. I’ll go with the mild upset and pick Da Bears, 31-24.
• Falcons at Giants (1:00, Fox) – Both of these teams have been inconsistent, but the Falcons even more so on the road. Jazz and I are on the same page here, but I think there’ll be more scoring. Giants 33-27 over the Falcons.
• Chiefs at 49ers (4:25, CBS) – The Chiefs have improved over their last season, but San Francisco is at home and have righted the ship after a shaky start. 49ers should win this game, or forget about competing with Seattle and Arizona this year. Look for a fun shootout, 35-31.
• Bengals at Patriots (8:30, NBC) – I’m certainly hoping that Cincinnati loses, but it’s difficult to predict it. On paper they’re middle of the road, but they’re making the best of it. The problem here is that, except for rushing defense (ranked #1 in the league), the Pats are worse in every category. Who would have expected a Tom Brady-led offense to rank 30th in the league in week 5? Home field advantage in New England is more effective in winter against warm-weather and dome teams, none of which applies today. I’ll take the Bengals (and a couple of aspirin) over the Patriots, 35-27.