Arkansas shift. Pryor now trails Tom Cotton

To finish up the weekend on a bit of a positive note, polling groups around the nation are starting to shift their models from registered voters to likely voters as the days until November shrink. One in particular will be of interest and it’s in the highly contested state of Arkansas. We always thought Mark Pryor was in trouble, but he has been holding on in the polls surprisingly well. This week, the NBC/Marist poll, which previously showed Pryor in a fairly solid position, has taken a big turn and Tom Cotton (who did an interview for Hot Air back in April) has moved into the lead.

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Arkansas) has slipped behind his challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton (R), 40% to 45% among likely voters, the survey said. That’s a huge shift from the firm’s May poll that found Pryor ahead by 11 points among all registered voters.

Democrats face uphill terrain in their quest to keep the Senate as many of the key races are in Republican-leaning states where President Barack Obama is deeply unpopular.

That wasn’t the only turn of the political worm this weekend. In Kentucky, Alison Grimes has seen a similar negative shift in the winds of fate.

In the Senate’s marquee race, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) now leads his Democratic challenger, Alison Grimes, 47% to 39% among likely voters, the poll found. That’s a change from May, when the two candidates “were essentially deadlocked.”

Yes, both of these races are still close. And the distance from September 7th until November might as well be the span from Earth to Mars in political terms. But momentum isn’t to be totally discounted and, at least for this week, the winds are blowing favorably.

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