As much as we all enjoy a spirited debate – or a good old fashioned food fight, if you prefer – the summer is slipping away and you’d expect by now that the Republican primary field would be beginning to settle out a bit. Instead, we’ve got new potential top tier contenders still getting ready to dive into the pool, quitters thinking about un-quitting, and people who haven’t even moved the needle in the polls still strutting around like they’re on top of the heap.
Traditionally the Ames straw poll has been a make or break event for struggling campaigns, and our own Ed Morrissey is out there on the ground to cover it for us. But when all the balloons have been popped and the clean-up begins, will this event result in culling any stragglers from the herd? Without coming right out and saying it, Politico seems to think there’s at least one contender who is close to falling out of the mix unless he can produce a strong finish.
He’s spent a seven-figure sum and the bulk of his time on the campaign trail courting the Iowa grassroots. Operatives call his expansive Iowa organization the best in the state.
As the only mainstream Republican candidate actively competing in the Ames straw poll—thanks to Mitt Romney’s decision to skip the event and Rick Perry’s presidential race slow-walk—Tim Pawlenty may never have a better opportunity to break through in the 2012 campaign than this Saturday…
But if Pawlenty fails to deliver, it will be a grim – and possibly fatal – omen for his underfunded presidential bid.
While they go on to point out that T-Paw has “done everything right in Iowa,” Politico notes that the Governor’s fundraising has been lukewarm at best. If he expects to ramp up the excitement among big donors and get the kind of money required to finish this thing, he’s going to have to lug home a fairly impressive trophy. A strong second place finish to Bachmann might be good enough to keep going, but if he falls to fourth or fifth, finishing even behind (*gasp*) Ron Paul, (or even worse, write-in ballots for Perry) it may be hard for donors to justify continuing to flush money into his campaign.
So is there anyone else who could conceivably bow out after Ames? Some of the strongest chatter I’m seeing centers around Rick Santorum. Let’s face it, Rick’s “take no prisoners” brand of social conservatism makes him a better fit in Iowa than nearly anywhere else in the nation aside from possibly Amish country back in his home state. If Santorum can’t push into at least the top three on Saturday it may be the unwelcome dose or reality that leads him to fold up his tent and exit stage Right.
I can’t imagine Cain dropping out this early, though he has yet to develop any breakout numbers in the national polls. And, of course, Mitt is already running the general election in his mind whether he pulls a single vote in Iowa or not. The rest of the candidates who could drop out are pretty much ones that nobody was taking seriously as contenders anyway.
Of course, we can’t have this discussion every four years without pondering once again exactly why Iowa fights so far above its weight class in terms of presidential race impact. I saw one interesting observation on this point today from Jim Geraghty in this morning’s edition of the Morning Jolt. (It’s not available online, but you can sign up for e-mail delivery here if you don’t already get it.)
No offense to Iowa readers, but those of us in the other 49 states don’t find your traditional role of wielding wildly disproportional power in selecting the next president as charming as you do.
The state’s primary electorate is largely isolationist. Economically, it’s wildly disproportionately agricultural compared to most other states. Aspiring presidents tend to pander on ethanol subsidies, though you’re starting to see Republicans defy this. It is deeply religious and socially conservative, but ironically, it’s different kind from the kind you get in South Carolina. It relishes populism. What’s more, under the caucus system, turnout is exceptionally low compared to a primary. If you can’t find a sitter, you can’t vote. If you work nights, you can’t vote. There is no secret ballot, which is why we saw Iowa Democrats calling their neighbors racist for supporting Hillary Clinton instead of Barack Obama on caucus night 2008. It is a mess, and from where I sit, the sooner we drive a stake into the heart of the Iowa caucuses, the better.
Don’t pull your punches, Jim. Tell us how you really feel.
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