In the regularly scheduled runoff between Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, the candidates run effectively even; Ossoff, at 50%, nominally 2 points ahead of Perdue, at 48%. This lead is within the survey’s wiggle room and should not be viewed as anything more than validation that every vote will be critical when on 01/05/2021 Georgia starts counting ballots.
In the simultaneous special runoff to fill the Senate seat vacated by Republican Johnny Isakson, Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock has a small but measurable advantage over Loeffler, 52% to 45%. Warnock’s slight advantage comes almost entirely from Democrats who refuse to consider Loeffler as an acceptable alternative to Warnock. Among Democrats who tell SurveyUSA they are likely to return a ballot in the runoff election, just 1% cross-over for Loeffler. 97% of Democrats stick with Democrat Warnock.
By contrast, in the Ossoff contest, 5% of Democrats cross-over and vote for Perdue. The difference between a 5% defection rate and a 1% defection rate is just enough to explain why Warnock may be in a slightly stronger position than Ossoff, 11 days till early runoff voting begins.