But he has to paint the recall effort as an attack by disgruntled supporters of President Trump. That might be helped by news that national Republicans like Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee are trying to help the recall qualify for the ballot.

If Newsom can make it about Trump, Newsom wins.

Right now, Newsom’s chances of survival are tied to the pandemic. If California can get the coronavirus under some semblance of control and counties can lift economic restrictions — and here’s the big if, if Newsom can lean on teachers unions and school districts to reopen classrooms — he’ll survive any recall and all but guarantee his re-election.

If not, Newsom will be in a fight for his political life.