First thing to note: it is not incidental that Democrats are seeing attrition among people of faith at the same time that Republicans are gaining among people of color. African Americans and Hispanics, for instance, tend to be more religious and socially conservative than whites on average. People lose sight of this because many minority populations have decisively skewed towards Democrats. However, this does not mean they are liberal. In fact, African Americans and Hispanics are among the least “culturally left” constituents within the Democratic coalition. And as the Democratic Party leans ever more into niche “cultural” issues at the expense of bread-and-butter issues, it seems as though many minority voters are growing alienated from the party. Again, this was a trend that preceded Trump, but has continued under his tenure unabated.

The most dramatic shift among religious groups (and for many, perhaps the most surprising) seems to have taken place among Muslims. But in fact, these shifts should perhaps not be surprising as they, too, are likely intimately bound up with shifts along racial lines. While Islam is often associated with Arabs in the American imagination, in fact a plurality of U.S Muslims are African American (both black and of more recent African heritage). Significant shifts among African Americans, therefore, likely translate into shifts among Muslims.