That means that the races are likely to come down to persuading the small slice of affluent suburban voters around Atlanta who voted for both Joe Biden and Republican congressional candidates in the November election. Joe Biden carried Georgia with 49.5 percent of the vote—the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since 1992—but Democratic Senate nominee Jon Ossoff received only 47.9 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, in the special election in which all candidates ran on the same ballot, the Democrats (led by the Rev. Raphael Warnock) tallied 48.4 percent of the vote, a point behind Biden.

Exit polling in Georgia offers additional clarity on the type of voters who split their tickets. In November, Sen. David Perdue won white college-educated women by 15 points (56-41 percent), while Trump led Biden by only 10 points with that demographic. Among voters who make more than $200,000 a year, Biden led by 28 points. But Ossoff won these voters by only 21 points—a notable drop-off…

“There seem to be some voters who aren’t necessarily part of the Democratic base but are willing to vote for Democrats for president. A core question is whether Democrats can persuade these voters to help them gain a Senate majority,” Bronner wrote.