The Republican gamble is more straightforward. It hinges on turning out their more numerous high-propensity voters on Election Day — a time-honored practice for the Florida GOP…
While Republicans boast of having 167,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 percentage points on Florida’s voter rolls. And Democrats are still turning out higher numbers of new voters and voters who didn’t cast ballots in the last two general elections.
“I think Republicans are underestimating. You’re seeing a tremendous amount of energy from Democrats and from sporadic voters who only turn out in presidential election years,” said Ashley Walker, a top adviser to Barack Obama’s two presidential campaigns in Florida.
“The reality is that we’ve been able to turn out low-propensity voters in two of the last three presidentials and this race is a lot different from the last one we lost, in 2016,” she said. “And the question is, will they continue to come out on Election Day?”