“It’s really hard to argue Florida is a true swing state,” said Matthew C. Isbell, a Democratic data strategist in South Florida. “It’s not Missouri. It’s not Ohio, where Trump won by eight points. It’s just more modestly Republican — kind of like North Carolina, but even a little further to the right.”…

“We’re not leftists, as Cubans,” said Gloria Davis, 59, a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump in Miami. “I see the leftists in the Democrat Party. He has what it takes to be president, and he’s a strong man. You can’t be weak in this nation.”

More concerning for Democrats, however, was that Mr. Trump also did better than four years ago across the state with non-Cuban Hispanic voters, who tend to lean more liberal. Exit polls conducted for the National Election Poll showed Joseph R. Biden Jr. falling short of 60 percent statewide with Hispanic voters, down from the two-thirds captured by Hillary Clinton in 2016…

“Our data suggested that close to half of Trump voters that were going to vote were going to vote on Election Day,” said Ryan D. Tyson, a Republican pollster in Tallahassee whose surveys hewed closely to the final results in 2016, 2018 and this year. On Tuesday, “my math said that we had won the election at 11 a.m.,” he said. “Everything else was gravy.”