Here’s what I think will happen, if election interference does not change the dynamic I have relied on for many cycles to predict with some accuracy – I foretold the red wave of ’14 and the blue waves of ’16 and ’18, and I sense another blue one coming Tuesday.
You can see what I predicted in 2016 and 2018 based on early voting/mail data; the only question was how deep the blue wave would go. (The data was quite prescient, although I acknowledge being nervous every time I press the “publish” button on these crystal ball columns.)
The plain fact is that the 2020 early/mail vote looks much like the 2016 and 2012 early/mail votes — even stronger for the Democrats in some ways. Yes, as I have said, this has been an unusual year with all of the mail, but the one pattern of the last few presidential cycles that has remained immutable is this: The Democrats have banked so many votes in early voting that it is almost impossible for the Republicans to overcome it on Election Day.
The Democratic lead in Clark County – almost at 90,000 ballots as I write this – is a formidable, unprecedented firewall. You can read the early voting blog to see why I think so and for more data and analysis.