Biden leads Trump by a 51% to 44% margin among likely Pennsylvania voters in a high turnout model+. The race stands at 50% Biden to 45% Trump in a low turnout scenario – which at this point would basically mean a large number of mail ballots have been rejected. Among all registered voters, 50% support Biden and 45% back Trump while another 1% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided or won’t reveal their vote choice. The undecided number is up slightly from 2% last month.

The results show a smaller lead for the challenger compared to Monmouth’s poll last month, when Biden held an 11-point lead in a high turnout scenario and an 8-point lead in the low turnout model. That poll was taken immediately after the first debate, with half the interviews conducted after the public learned that Trump had just contracted Covid-19. Across three Pennsylvania polls conducted by Monmouth since the national party conventions, Biden’s share of the vote has ranged from 48% to 54% among likely voters while Trump’s support has ranged from 43% to 47%…

Regionally, Biden holds a 40-point lead (67% to 27%) among registered voters in four large Democratic counties Hillary Clinton won by a cumulative 35 points four years ago. Trump has a 20-point lead (57% to 37%) in the counties he won handily in 2016. This is consistent with his standing in these counties in prior polls, but remains tighter than the 34-point margin he had in the last election.