The most likely scenario for Democrats is a net loss of between seven to 11 seats, according to interviews with campaign officials and strategists from both parties. That toll has prompted some tense discussions within the Democratic caucus about its message, tactics and leadership, with an internal race intensifying to succeed Democratic Congressional Campaign Chair Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.).
And the fallout means the House is indeed in play in 2022, and the battle will be fought on a whole new set of district lines, most of which will be drawn by Republicans who maintained control of key statehouses.
Some two dozen battleground races remain uncalled, and the final results may not be known for weeks. But at least two more Democrats are likely to fall: Reps. Max Rose and Anthony Brindisi in New York, who trail their opponents by tens of thousands of votes. And the party is also worried about ceding an open southeast district in Iowa and about the fate of Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah).
In California, there’s a real chance Democrats could lose three more members — Reps. Gil Cisneros, T.J. Cox and Harley Rouda — because the remaining mail-in ballots have not skewed against their GOP challengers as they did in the 2018 midterms.