We first asked how “most of your neighbors in the community where you live” would vote for president. The reality is that relatively few Trump supporters are surrounded by Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of Trump supporters (64%) say all or most of their neighbors are voting for Trump, while only 7% say all or most of their neighbors are for Biden. One in ten think their neighbors are evenly split and 19% don’t know how their neighbors will vote.
If anything, Biden supporters may be under more social pressure: Less than half (44%) say all or most of their neighbors are also voting for Biden, while 15% say all or most are for Trump, 14% say the neighbors are split evenly and 26% are not sure…
So we took the analysis a step further by asking Trump and Biden supporters if their neighbors would be surprised about whom they were supporting, in order to determine whether people were shy enough to keep their neighbors from knowing how they were planning to vote.
The results? Very few said their neighbors would be surprised by their voting intention, with Trump supporters (12%) just two points higher than Biden supporters (10%) – a difference not large enough to be statistically significant. The surprise factor is higher where respondents are cross-pressured, but again, Trump voters whose neighbors mostly support Biden said their choice would surprise their neighbors (31%) only slightly more than Biden voters in Trump supporting neighborhoods (27%). Again, the difference was not large enough to be statistically significant.