By the end of September, requests for absentee ballots had already surpassed 2016 levels in nearly every state. In 10 states, all voters are being sent a mail-in ballot automatically.

Voters are also taking advantage of in-person early voting, with a record-breaking number showing up on the first day of early voting in some states. This is Virginia’s first election with early voting, a change made after Democrats assumed control of the state House and Senate last fall. A handful of states expanded early voting in response to the pandemic, including Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) extended it by a week…

The critical question for Democrats is whether these 2020 early ballots are additional voters or just people who would have voted on Election Day anyway.

For states where early ballots can be matched against a voter file, roughly 1 in 5 votes have come from someone who did not cast a ballot four years ago in the same state.