But even perpetually pessimistic amateur election-watchers are seeing signs that the long-prophesied shift in Texas’ political winds could finally be at hand. Recent polls of actual quality show Biden trailing within the margin of error, or even ahead of President Donald Trump. Sen. John Cornyn’s lead over Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar is holding at a cozy 8 points (everything is bigger in Texas, a statement especially true of winning margins for statewide Republicans)…

“Texas registered 580-something-thousand brand-new voters in September. It’s crazy, the number of people who’ve decided this is the year they’re gonna vote,” said Duty. “I don’t know what they’ve been doing for the last 30 years, but they can vote this year!”

The enthusiasm, party officials hypothesized to The Daily Beast, appears to be the result of a perfect storm for Texas Democrats: a weak incumbent president at the top of the ticket, softening support for the state’s Republican governor in the wake of his mishandling of COVID-19, a moderate Democratic presidential challenger who doesn’t scare the hell out of Texans, and, yes, demographic shifts, brought about in part by the state’s come-one-come-all solicitation of California-based businesses to seek shelter from higher taxes.