Biden looks like he’s won back enough of the working-class white voters in the Midwest who defected en masse from Clinton in 2016, while Trump’s abiding unpopularity has energized reliably Democratic younger voters and African American voters to show up in greater numbers than they did four years ago. Capitalizing on a historic gender gap, Biden is likely to run up the score in the Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs. Michigan looks solidly in the Democratic camp, Wisconsin stuck by Biden after the social unrest in Kenosha, and Trump hasn’t led Biden in a reputable Pennsylvania poll since May.

Arizona has emerged as a handy insurance policy for nervous Democrats worried about a surprise in the Rust Belt. Biden has held a narrow lead in most Arizona polls, thanks to a growing Democratic shift in the Maricopa County suburbs. The GOP has found it difficult to appeal to MAGA Republicans in the rural parts of the state without alienating the McCain Republicans in the Phoenix and Tucson suburbs. All the state’s political trend lines, from a closer-than-expected 2016 election to Kyrsten’s Sinema’s victory over Martha McSally in the 2018 Senate race, point to a Biden advantage. If Biden carries Arizona, Trump would likely need to win two of the Midwestern swing states to claim an Electoral College majority.