In Michigan and Wisconsin, White voters make up a larger share of the population than they do in Arizona or North Carolina, and they also are more apt to support Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin than they are in either Arizona or North Carolina. White voters with college degrees in the two northern states favor Biden by especially wide margins, 61% support the former vice president in both Michigan and Wisconsin, compared with about half in Arizona (50%) and North Carolina (51%). Majorities of White voters without college degrees back Trump, with his strongest support among that group coming in North Carolina, where 64% back the President.
There are sizable gender gaps across all four states, with 55% or more of women backing Biden in each of these states, while men break in Trump’s favor in North Carolina and Arizona and split evenly between the two in Michigan and Wisconsin.
On the two defining issues of the 2020 campaign — the economy and the coronavirus pandemic — voters diverge over which candidate would better handle each of them. Biden has a sizable edge as more trusted to handle the coronavirus outbreak across all four states, with a 7-point edge on the matter in Arizona his narrowest margin. Voters in Arizona and North Carolina would largely rather see the economy in Trump’s hands (54% Trump to 43% Biden in Arizona, 51% Trump to 46% Biden in North Carolina), and the two candidates are even on the issue in Michigan (49% Trump to 48% Biden) and Wisconsin (49% Biden to 48% Trump) even with Biden’s wider edge in overall preferences there.