Biden leads Trump among Hispanics by just 48-43 percent, numbers that could mean trouble for the former vice president in the nation’s biggest swing state.

While Florida isn’t a must-win state for Biden as it is for Trump, a failure to generate stronger numbers among Hispanics could ensure he loses the state’s 29 electoral votes. Clinton received 62 percent of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2016, according to exit polls, and still lost here.

“If Biden is going to flip Florida, he has to at least match Clinton’s numbers among Hispanics and that looks like it’s not going to happen,” said Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, who conducted the poll.

“Even if he were to pull most of the undecided vote still out there, Trump is going to do better this time than he did last time,” Coker added. Trump received 35 percent of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2016 exit polls.