Even a small shift in Latter-day Saints’ voting patterns could have a large impact in Arizona. There are about 437,000 members of the faith in the state, though that number includes children; Mr. Trump won by just 91,000 votes in 2016. With well educated suburbanites already moving away from the president, the race is expected to be considerably closer this year…

Four years ago, Dan Barker, a retired state court of appeals judge, and a Republican, couldn’t bring himself to support Mr. Trump, who he said was not capable of the kind of moral leadership that he wanted in a president. For the same reason, he couldn’t support Mrs. Clinton. Instead, he wrote in Mr. Romney on his ballot.

“This year is different for two reasons,” he said. “I have stronger feelings about what would happen to our country with four more years of our current president, and Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.”