Montana Gov. Steve Bullock leads incumbent Sen. Steve Daines by two points in the race for the U.S. Senate with 49% from likely and active registered voters compared to 47% for Daines. Only 3% were undecided.

The pre-election poll found that Bullock is the only Democrat to lead in the key races on the Montana ballot for 2020.

A key statistic in the race is that of loyalty from the two voting bases, Parker said. Bullock received 97% of support from Democrats compared to Daines’ 88% from Republicans. Another 67% of independent voters also said they preferred Bullock, compared to 29% for Daines, a margin that Parker called “overwhelming.”

“For the Democrats to win this race, they need to have their base behind them, a big solid lead from independent voters and hope for Republican defectors, all of which we see,” Parker said. “Bullock has gained some ground. That’s why the race is close, and he is in the lead.”