Among all registered voters in Georgia, Biden is supported by 50% and Trump is supported by 45%. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% are undecided. These results represent a small swing in the Democrat’s favor, but the numbers are not statistically different from Trump’s single point edge last month (47% to 46% for Biden) or the tied result in July (47% each).
Similarly, the shifts in Monmouth’s likely voter models+ are not statistically significant, but they do show Biden with a nominal lead for the first time. In a high turnout model, Biden has 50% support and Trump has 46%. Trump led in this model by 2 points in September and one point in July. The race is tighter using a lower turnout model at 50% Biden and 48% Trump, whereas the incumbent led by 3 to 5 points in this model in prior polls. Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016.
More than half (58%) of registered voters in Georgia report having already cast their ballots. Biden leads among this group by 55% to 43%. Trump has a 48% to 44% edge, though, among those who have yet to vote. When the sample is put into different likely voter models, Trump pulls further ahead among the vote that is still outstanding – 53% to 41% for Biden in a high turnout scenario and 59% to 36% at a lower level of turnout.