Florida: Biden 50, Trump 45

Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 1% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), and 2% are undecided. In different likely voter models+, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 45% for Trump in a high turnout scenario and 50% to 46% with lower turnout. Biden’s current lead is nearly identical to the likely voter model results in last month’s Monmouth poll. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point.

The gender gap has widened in the past month. Biden leads among women by 60% to 37% (versus 53% to 41% in September) and Trump leads among men by 54% to 39% (versus 49% to 46% last month). The Democrat maintains a large advantage among voters of color (68% to 23%) although his lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). These findings are virtually identical to Monmouth’s September results. According to the 2016 National Election Pool’s exit poll, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%). Trump leads among white voters by 55% to 41%, but this is much smaller than his 32-point margin among white voters in the 2016 exit poll (64% to 32%).

Florida’s sizable senior vote remains divided – 51% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Trump had a 2-point lead (49% to 47%) among voters aged 65 and older in September. Trump also has an edge among voters aged 50 to 64 (52% to 45%), a group that was evenly divided (48% to 48%) last month. Biden is able to offset these deficits with a strong showing among voters under 50 years old (57% to 35% for Trump, up from 53% to 38% last month).