But it doesn’t get less weird. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio — which Trump won in 2016 by five, nine and eight points, respectively — are the next three closest states. What’s more, Biden leads in the first two.
Notice where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin land. In 2016, Trump’s narrow wins in those three states earned him the presidency. Now, Biden leads by at least six points in each. Arizona is closer than any of those three states. Alaska is closer.
We highlighted a particularly odd stretch of margins. South Carolina is closer than Michigan? Michigan is closer than Montana? Nebraska is closer than Minnesota? What is happening here?…
Earlier this month, we made a tool allowing readers to see how errors in the polls (underestimating the number of Trump voters who turn out, for example) would affect the national results. At the moment, if the polls in every state were wrong in the exact same way as they were in 2016 — Biden still wins the presidency with over 300 electoral votes. (If the polls are off to the same degree as 2016 but in the other direction — which could happen! — Biden’s margin is far bigger.)