GOP won in Washoe (1,200) and Clark (500) in-person voting again, but only by a combined 1,700, so Clark firewall pretty intact at 81,000 (I said they needed to be above 80,000 to feel comfortable) and Washoe at 1,700 (they were at 1,000 in 2016 but about 40,000 more registered voters this time).

I looked at rurals counted through Thursday and GOP has about a 40,000-ballot lead or so, which may mean Trump is ahead there by 50,000 or so. Even if he gets that margin up to 80,000 by the end of Tuesday, which would be remarkable, he would still probably lose.

The 36,000 turnout in Clark today diminishes the number of votes left out there for Election Day, and it will go down more once mail is counted. Tunrout has been bigger than any year we have ever seen here. I’ll create some models to show the possibilities once more data from today comes in.

Bottom line: Dems have to be happy, Republicans have to be worried.