I should note Arizona still seems to be to the right of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the polls.

But there’s good reason to think that the polls in Arizona are less likely to underestimate Trump than in the Great Lakes. You may recall Trump overperformed his polling in the Great Lakes in 2016.

In 2016 and 2018, the polling in Arizona was pretty accurate. As the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman has pointed out, that’s the case for the polling in the Southwest generally. If anything, it has underestimated the Democratic candidates.

Part of that underestimation may have to do with the high Hispanic population in the state. Hispanics will likely make up close to 20% of the Arizona electorate in 2020. Biden, in general, has been underperforming among Hispanics compared to how Clinton did in 2016.