It might sound a little unseemly, and even a tad nuts, considering the ongoing pandemic, the wheezing economy and his trailing position in most polls, but … all of a sudden, Trump’s in a pretty good spot. Maybe one of the best of his presidency. With the imminent chance to pick his third person for the nine-seat high court, he has the ammunition he needs to amp up enthusiasm for his reelection among the most fervently anti-abortion portion of his base and maybe flip a script that has had Joe Biden in the lead for months. After the often chaotic, erratic past four years, Trump has within plausible reach a shot at being one of the more consequential presidents ever.

But close observers of Trump’s career know that such moments are fraught with risk for him. In the past, when he’s been in such situations, wide-eyed with a triumphant runway coming more and more into focus—in the late ‘80s, for instance, when he went on an epic buying binge, or in the mid-2000s, when he preened on a hit television show—he has gloated and boasted. He’s gotten greedy and reckless. He’s tried to run up the score. And he’s paid for it…

“Donald can act for a time,” Trump biographer David Cay Johnston said, “but he can’t sustain it.”

“I’m sure his staff will try to get him to hold back,” former Trump Organization Executive Vice President Barbara Res said, “but … ”