My clear observation is that national polls should not be trusted. Instead, we should all look at the relative levels of voter enthusiasm when they are measured. The most extraordinary statistic among those who say they will vote for Biden is that half of them claim their primary motive for doing so is a dislike of Trump. In other words, pollsters’ own data suggests that half of Biden’s vote is negative.
I have seen this data in private polling. It shows a distinct lack of enthusiasm for and confidence in Biden’s ability to discharge his duties as would-be president of the United States of America. I am not surprised. The truth is that he is past it. He is not up to the job. He is wholly unfit for high office, and the voters can see it. Despite the coronavirus crisis limiting campaigning, there is no doubt that Trump will want to storm around the country. Biden, however, is showing every sign of wanting to spend as much at time as possible in his Delaware bunker. As for Biden’s decision to pick Kamala Harris to be his running mate, it may seem to some to be sound—but she is a California Democrat. Will she have much to offer those who live in Midwestern states and who care mostly about jobs? I doubt it. Similarly, her green credentials may play well on the West Coast, but what about in the Rust Belt?
There are, of course, other things that also suggest Trump will win in November. For the last 60 years, one of the principal factors in determining American opinion in presidential elections has been TV debates. I believe that Trump will crush Biden in these contests. Whether you support him or not, his quick-wittedness cannot be denied. By contrast, Biden gives the impression of being a man who doesn’t quite know where he is. There is even speculation that “Slow Joe” could duck out of these debates, and that somehow this would save him, but that would surely lead only to national derision.