Most of the world may face COVID without a vaccine

Bloomberg: When do you predict vaccines may arrive?

Stohr: Countries like Germany may have a significant amount of vaccine by the beginning of next year and a rollout that may take four, five, six months for the elderly. The strategy may be different for a country like Brazil, Argentina or Chile, which may never get a single dose of a vaccine and still has to cope.

The world will be divided into two groups, those with vaccines and those with no vaccines.

Bloomberg: How do you see worldwide immunity ramping up as vaccines are introduced and the disease spreads?

Stohr: I would assume that by the middle of next year a significant portion of the world will have antibodies. That will increase gradually over time. Then there will be a third wave, and when that is over, I would think that 80% of the world may have antibodies if lockdowns are not instituted, which I doubt.