Older black voters have stayed the most loyal to the party and will likely vote in significant numbers for Biden this fall. They tend to turn out in vastly higher numbers at the polls (just as older white Americans do). In 2016, 71% of those over the age of 65 voted, while only 46% of those 18-29 did. That drop-off, which helped cost Clinton the election, is what concerns Democratic officials this year when even small margins of voters staying home in swing states could cost Biden the election too. Voters who switched from backing Barack Obama in 2012 to voting for Trump in 2016 were largely white, but those voters who supported Obama and then didn’t vote in 2016 were mostly black. Black turnout dropped between 2012-2016 by eight percentage points.
Those studying such trends say younger voters, more progressive than their elders, expect more from politicians and want the party to change. Chryl Laird, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College and author of “Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior,” told USA Today that Biden is viewed as “a very clear image of a status quo politician within the Democratic Party.”
As for Trump, a Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape poll this spring (before Floyd’s death and the protests that followed) found only 14% of black voters age 45-64 have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of him while 9% of those older than 65 do. By contrast, 29% of those age 30-44 held such favorable views and 21% of those ages 18-29 do as well.
Even a historic choice of a black woman for his vice presidential nominee would not necessarily inspire more votes from progressive black voters for Biden.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member