Who will turn out in greater numbers to stand in long, socially distanced lines outside voting stations—Republicans, who are relatively unconcerned, or Democrats, terrified that going outdoors could kill them? A Pew Research Center poll from late June found that 61% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believed “the worst” of the coronavirus crisis “is behind us,” compared with 38% who thought the worst is yet to come. Among Democrats, only 23% thought it was mostly behind us; 76% said the worst is still to come.

Republicans were much less worried (45% very or somewhat concerned) than Democrats (77%) about unknowingly spreading Covid-19 to others. GOP voters are much more willing to mix and mingle with other people than Democrats, whether it’s attending an indoor sporting event or concert (40% vs. 11%) or dining at a restaurant (65% vs. 28%)…

Which points to another problem for him: There’s also a big enthusiasm gap, which works in the president’s favor, between Biden and Trump voters. To be sure, unlike in 2016, the Democratic nominee is far less widely disliked than Mr. Trump. But a June USA Today poll found that “half of Trump backers say they are ‘very excited’ about their candidate, almost double the 27% of Biden backers who say that.”