According to the poll, 46% of likely voters say they would back Greenfield if the election were held today, and 43% say they would back Ernst.

“This is definitely a competitive race,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. She said the poll contains other “warning signs” for Ernst and noted that this is the first Iowa Poll conducted since Ernst first ran in 2014 in which she has trailed her general election opponent.

“Symbolically, that’s certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield’s lead is not commanding,” Selzer said…

Women choose Greenfield by 20 percentage points, 54% to 34%. White women without a college degree choose Greenfield by an even larger margin: 60% to 29%.