Last week, the model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, predicted 170,000 deaths for this same time period. The model was often cited by the White House early in the pandemic and is one of 19 models currently featured on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.

As of today, the model projects that 201,129 people will die from Covid-19 in the US by October 1, with a possible range of 171,551 to 269,395 deaths. Ali Mokdad, one of the model’s creators, said they’ve raised the number of projected deaths for two reasons.