This August, when President Donald J. Trump is scheduled to take to a stage in Jacksonville and accept his party’s nomination for re-election, the event will mark the fifth time that a political convention has been held in Florida at the height of the state’s molten summer. If it’s anything like the other four, something—or quite possibly several somethings—will go wrong.

The first three, all held in Miami Beach, were marred by riots, major political miscalculations and the kind of odd behavior that has become the hallmark of everything connected with Florida. The last one, held eight years ago in Tampa, was even wilder, featuring mermaids, penguins, police spies, a tropical storm, a bizarre movie star interlude and some very disappointed strippers.

Even before it begins, the Jacksonville convention is already under a cloud—and not just from being scheduled smack in the middle of a hurricane season that’s expected to be more active than usual.