So, what do all of these data have to do with 2020? Although Pew Research Center has not yet performed another “religious landscape” report, there are other data points that suggest some of these trends are reversing course.
For instance, in the 2018 midterm elections, the exit polls reported that Democrats earned 41 percent of the white Catholic vote. And while this 4 percentage point bump in support may be nothing to write home about, it puts the Democrats at about the level of where Obama was in 2012 when he won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Another Pew Research Center survey from 2019 showed Trump’s approval rating among white Catholics falling from 52 percent to 44 percent during his first two years in office…
While it remains unlikely that Biden, a Catholic, will be able to pull a majority of white Catholics towards the Democratic Party in November, were he to garner 45 percent of their votes, it seems likely that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will again be colored blue.