“Joe Biden leads by around 9 points in our national polling average, and that lead has been growing. Of course, national polls don’t really matter. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would have been president,” he said. “But it’s worth noting that such a large lead is unusual in politics these days. Clinton never led by more than 7 points, for example, and at this point in the 2008 race, Barack Obama led John McCain by around 6 points.”…
“The race is a bit tighter in the Midwest. We have Biden up by a more modest 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Pennsylvania. Biden also can’t necessarily take Minnesota for granted. Trump nearly won it in 2016, and there’s been no polling there since the protest began in the state,” Silver said.
“But there are a lot of issues for Trump. He’s behind by 10 in Michigan, and Biden is doing surprisingly well in Florida ahead by 7 points. If Biden were to win Florida, and he only needs one state from that Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin group. Or Biden could lose all of those Midwestern states but win Arizona where our average has him up by 4,” he continued. “So, for the time being, no, I don’t buy that we’re going to have exactly the same map as in 2016. Instead, Trump is kind of fighting a two-front war with problems in the Midwest on one hand, and then Arizona and Florida on the other hand.”
