The collapse robs Trump of his chief argument for re-election and will fuel his drive to quickly “reopen” the U.S economy, even as solid majorities of Americans are reluctant to return to public life.

“We’ve got to get our economy open for the good of the people. But I do think if we get a recovery going in September and October, and people feel like things are going in the right direction, that the American people will” return Trump to the White House, said Stephen Moore, an economist who backs Trump and who participated in an April call among the president and industry leaders on reviving the country.

“If we don’t get the economy reopened, we go into November with a severe recession, then you’re looking probably at a President Joe Biden,” Moore said.