Why we're not ready to call Georgia a toss-up

More important, as one Democratic strategist said to me, Georgia is not a ‘tipping point’ state, so it’s going to be hard for the Biden campaign to justify spending the money that it will take to compete there when you are also trying to put other expensive states in the win column. In other words, Biden doesn’t need Georgia to hit 270. He does need Pennsylvania. And, Michigan. And Wisconsin or Arizona. Plus, they also have to play defense in states that lean blue but could become competitive — like Minnesota or Nevada.

For Democrats, winning Georgia is like trying to lose those last 5-10 pounds. On paper, it doesn’t seem all that hard. But, once you spend two weeks desperately looking down at a scale that doesn’t budge, you realize it’s going to take a ton of effort to lose each and every pound. For now, Georgia stays in Lean Republican.