Biden’s most likely paths to 270 electoral college votes:

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment. (Map)

Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02. (Map)

The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Map)
Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina. (Map)

Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270. (Map)