Comparing China’s rise in this century to that of the U.S. between 1920 and 1945 can provide us with clues to what’s coming next in international affairs. Today China is on the verge of being able to challenge the U.S. military in the Pacific. President Donald Trump has spoken of a new “super duper” missile that will help Washington keep up with the threat.

Like the U.S., China has undergone a transformation from isolationism to a role of central involvement in international affairs. As Max Edling has written, America was a kind of “Hercules in the cradle” in the 19th century. During the era of the Monroe Doctrine, Washington sought to project power only in the Americas; by the late 19th century, the U.S. naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan was prophesying that the U.S. would become an international sea power. As a sign of American power, Teddy Roosevelt, known for his aphorism “speak softly and carry a big stick,” sent a fleet of battleships around the world in 1907. Similarly, as China grew more powerful in the 1990s, Deng Xiaoping’s motto was “hide your strength, bide time.” Last year, China showcased its massive new strength in a military parade brimming with stealth drones, missiles, and other technologies.

China is pursuing its Belt and Road Initiative to connect itself through Central Asia and the Middle East to Europe and increase its role in Africa. It has run up against some Western resistance, including concerns over Huawei’s 5G technology. This desire to use trade as a marker of power looks a lot like a darker version of Woodrow Wilson’s push for free trade and “making the world safe for democracy.” China’s model is to work with Russia and other authoritarian powers to build a multipolar world, thus reducing the U.S. role.