Disney, which shuttered the Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, Calif. and Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Fla. on March 12, will likely be unable to reopen the parks until Jan. 1, according to a report from UBS analyst John Hodulik.

“Profitability will likely be impaired until there’s a vaccine,” Hodulik said. “We believe parks’ profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case.”

The analyst said that even if Disney is able to open its doors early next year, the Mouse House will be impacted by health precautions that include social distancing, travel restrictions and crowd aversion, until there’s a COVID-19 vaccine.

As a result, he anticipates Disney’s theme parks take a $500 million earnings hit in 2020 and a $200 million hit in 2021.