The other political development that should concern Trump is the unification of the Democratic Party at a faster-than-expected pace. On Monday, Bernie Sanders announced he’s supporting Biden’s campaign and offered warm words for his primary rival. The next day, former President Obama formally endorsed his vice president in a message preaching party unity. Trump had been hoping for a Democratic civil war lasting into the summer, but party leaders managed to bring the nominating season to a close well ahead of time.

For all the political chaos of the last four years, American politics in the Trump era have been awfully consistent and predictable. Trump has the support of a loud and passionate base, but it hasn’t been enough to win many elections outside the most conservative parts of the country. Even during a pandemic, he still won’t seek to broaden his support beyond his hardcore supporters.

Here’s the harsh reality: Trump is down in the polls, and may still slip further back. With Biden expanding the map into Arizona and the president losing ground in the Midwest, Democrats have more plausible paths to an Electoral College majority. And as a recession becomes a reality, the president will bear the brunt of the blame. These are trends more suggestive of a Democratic blowout than a second Trump term.