We’re only about 40 days after Trump started to see his polling climb. Unbelievably, this is usually when rally around the flag effects hit their peak, not when they are almost entirely extinguished.
Now, a lot has changed since many of these rally around the flag events took place. We’re in a 24/7 news environment. Still, there’s plenty of reason to think that Trump’s limited bounce in terms of height and time is an underperformance.
Indeed, as Trump’s approval rating has declined, Congress’ has gone up. Both Fox News and Gallup put Congress’ approval rating at their highest since 2009. In pretty much every state poll I’m aware of, the governor’s approval rating, no matter their party affiliation, is higher than Trump’s. Even internationally, Trump saw a significantly smaller bounce than other world leaders.