Since roughly 10% of cases require hospitalization, we can also forecast the total number of hospitalizations of coronavirus cases in the NYC region. We just take 10% of the cases in the forecast and shift them forward by 8 days, to account for the delay from infection to the onset of symptoms.
At the outset of this crisis, NYC had between 1,200 and 3,000 beds available for coronavirus cases. Since we already have 777, we will hit capacity no later than March 24. Unfortunately all of those cases are already infected over the last few days.
The question now is whether we will stop adding to the cases a week from today, after the hospitals are already at capacity. If we don’t, we may see mortality rates similar to the peak mortality rates in Wuhan (~3%).
With the new infections that occur over the next 24 hours, we will be adding approximately 100 new hospital cases on Mar 28 EVERY HOUR.