“I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years we actually have a convention nominating the candidate,” Allan Lichtman, a political science professor at American University who has predicted elections dating back to 1984, told The Independent.

Mr Lichtman noted that his prediction model doesn’t make forecasts for primaries, but that there are plenty of signs that a brokered convention could happen: “And that would be very interesting, who knows what might come out of that.”…

“Internal party fights only count when it is in the party holding the White House,” Mr Lichtman, whose prediction model indicates that it is generally speaking the incumbent’s election to lose, said. “The challenging party can fight all they want and it has no impact . Look at the bitter battle by the Republicans in 2016 — it was much worse than what is happening with the Democrats this time. They were saying terrible things about each other and they still won.”