What does politics look like in a future where each party establishment is weak; where the most successful candidates use media to build direct-to-consumer campaigns; and where a passionate, even cultish following is what makes a primary campaign succeed?

Perhaps the future of politics looks like the future of religion.

In a 1994 paper entitled “Why Strict Churches Are Strong,” the economist Laurence Iannaccone noted a paradox in American faith. Religiosity was declining overall. But “strict” denominations—the ones, such as Mormonism and Orthodox Judaism, that asked their followers for the most devotion and the most social sacrifice—were growing. Iannaccone said that the devout pay a high social price (including the potential mockery of outsiders) to buy a superior religious product (membership in a congregation of passionate and like-minded people). Over time, in the marketplace of religion, niche beats general and fervent devotion beats moderation.

When I read Martin Cohen a summary of the Iannaccone paper during our interview, I could hear him saying “yep, yep, yep” before I had even finished. “It’s an interesting analogy to make for political parties,” Cohen said. Strong parties preferred moderate candidates for much of the past 50 years. But in weak parties, orthodox candidates often build the most devout followings. “The way this system is set up creates a factional survive-and-advance dynamic, with Iowa influencing New Hampshire, and New Hampshire influencing Nevada,” he continued. “In that sort of primary, the key is to have a high floor that won’t go away.”