Let’s talk about a brokered convention scenario. Imagine Bernie has 35%, you’ve got 25%, and the rest the delegates are subdivided between Biden and others. What happens? What’s the endgame?
Well, I think there is still math for a single moderate to win a plurality, or a majority, but more likely a plurality, between now and the convention. But I think the larger question is really around what happens at the convention. And some would say, as Bernie has said, Hey, whoever is first across the line should become the candidate. It occurs to me that that didn’t appear to be Bernie’s view last cycle, and if it was his view, he was certainly, and his people were certainly less than supportive of Mrs. Clinton than you would have expected them to be. Because certainly she was, at a minimum, the plurality candidate.
We are at a really interesting inflection point here. Bernie may very well be the front-runner and on his way to a plurality. And then we’ll have the rest of March, April, May, June, and part of July, where presumably there will be a much more critical look at him as he goes forward. And you could certainly envision a moment when you get to the convention, where not only does Bernie seem like somebody who possibly can’t capture the middle, but has suffered for the first time ever some real negatives that give people a real retrospection—despite the fact that the momentum has carried him forward with a plurality. We may be in a position where the convention wants to look elsewhere for someone who is stronger.
Starting this week, certainly a week from now, the media and the voters will take the first serious look that they’ve taken at Bernie Sanders, in my view, in his entire professional life. And oddly, I really don’t think you can make the case that it’s actually happened before now. Certainly many people from Clintonworld would be happy to make the case that it has not.