Lesson Two: The Lanes Are A Figment of Your Imagination
Lanes? Where we are going we don’t have lanes. Sure, there are certain candidates whose support bases overlap more than others. But not to the extent that you think. In 2016, when Chris Christie lost his voters many of them—maybe most of them—went to Trump, rather than the people supposedly in Christie’s “lane”—Jeb/Marco/Kasich.
Some anecdata: I talked to a California voter this week who doesn’t follow politics closely. She was deciding between Bernie and Biden. Which isn’t supposed to happen if you have “lanes.”
People think that there’s some rational equation for these things. Like:
Mike + Amy + Pete + Joe > Bernie + Elizabeth
That’s not how it works in vivo.
And by the way, just as the lane theory is wrong, so are the ideas that Bernie “has a ceiling” and that he “can’t win once the field narrows to two.” Don’t believe me—these head-to-head polls show how wrong it is.