Again, let’s stipulate that on any given Tuesday, yadda yadda yadda. But we have some pretty clear polling data on what to expect in a Trump versus Biden election.
Biden has led Trump in all but three of the head-to-head polls taken this cycle. That’s 61 polls showing Biden leading, three polls showing Trump leading.
This is not an artifact of Trump just having a bad run. Right now Trump’s job approval is at 45 percent, which is just about the highest it has ever been. Biden is still leading him by an average of 5 points.
And that’s just the national number.
When you go to state-level polling, Biden’s position is also strong: His starting point is roughly 268 votes in the Electoral College where Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina are the toss-ups. Biden has had small, but consistent, leads in North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. And remember: This is before Democrats have coalesced around their nominee and while Trump is on a relative upswing.