Here’s what the facts really show: Trump’s job approval rating among blacks averages a mere 13.3 percent in three of the most recent polls that release breakdowns by race. Trump received an average of only 9 percent of the black vote against Joe Biden in surveys in four key swing states conducted by the New York Times and Siena College in November. And a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll of blacks found Trump’s position to be even worse. This poll is the only recent public poll that interviewed only black voters, and thus has a lower margin of error for them than the other polls mentioned above. It found Trump had only a 7 percent job approval rating and gave him only 4 percent of the vote against Biden.
Trump supporters should also review some facts about polling methodology. A poll’s margin of error is based on the number of people polled as compared with the number of people in the population being sampled. The margin of error for an entire poll, however, does not apply to the totals for any subgroup data within that poll. The margins of error for subgroups are much higher than for the overall poll because the number of people being sampled, as compared with the subgroup’s population, is much smaller. Thus, a poll that has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent will have a significantly higher margin of error for any data reported about the black population.
These error margins can be extremely high when you look at the actual numbers of blacks sampled in any given poll.