Iran can play the long game

First, we should be prepared for the Iranians to mount additional terror or cyberattacks against the United States and its allies throughout the region, and possibly elsewhere in the world. Iran has powerful terrorist muscles and a budding cyberwar acumen. These attacks may take considerable time to pull off.

We should not be surprised if more American (or American-allied) targets go boom or go dark in the months ahead. Iran will assume that Washington will figure out the perpetrator of these attacks and the reasons behind them, but it will be much harder for the United States to respond with the same impunity it could reserve for a massive Iranian military attack.

Second, we should expect the Iranians to keep pressing their Iraqi proxies and allies to evict American troops from Iraq. The Iranians have wanted U.S. forces out of the Middle East for 40 years, but before the Soleimani killing there were those in Tehran — possibly including Soleimani himself — who were arguing that a residual U.S. troop presence in Iraq served Iran’s immediate interests. That debate seems over. Tehran is pushing hard to get American troops out of Iraq, having concluded that their presence there could spark additional crises and is just too dangerous for Iran.